Nacional Potosí 2–3 Real Oruro: Result & Stats

Nacional Potosí

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Real Oruro

S. Torres 37'

W. Alvarez 13' (pen)

D. Fernandez 90'

L. Vila 84'

S. Zeballos 45' (pen)

7/14/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 14Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte de Potosí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nacional Potosí59%

×Draw20%

Real Oruro21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional PotosíExpected goals in this matchReal Oruro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.28

Nacional Potosí

2.23

Real Oruro

1.28

Nacional Potosí creates 74% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

2.05

creates per match

1.37

1.19

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Nacional Potosí

2.05

Real Oruro

1.37

allows per match

Nacional Potosí

1.19

Real Oruro

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Real Oruro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Real Oruro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw

79%

Nacional Potosí or Real Oruro

80%

Draw or Real Oruro

41%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

36%

Real Oruro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

89%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

65%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

38%

Real Oruro 1+ goals

72%

Real Oruro 2+ goals

37%

Real Oruro 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

73%

Real Oruro (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Real Oruro away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.05 + Real Oruro defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.23

Real Oruro attack 1.37 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more

59%

level

20%

Real Oruro scores more

21%

Nacional Potosí at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Mustafa

Nacional Potosí · G

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Luis Alí

13'

W. AlvarezPenalty

37'

S. Torres↳ J. Rojas

45+2'

Carlos Ribera

45'

S. ZeballosPenalty

46'

M. Payares← L. Demiquel

51'

Duván Palacios

55'

Raúl GómezRed card cancelled

56'

Raúl Gómez

57'

R. Orihuela← C. Ribera

57'

63'

68'

68'

69'

71'

75'

75'

D. Fernandez← R. Cuellar Orti

76'

Diego Hoyos

79'

Jorge Rojas

79'

Jorge Rojas

84'

L. Vila↳ Gustavo Oliveira

88'

Luis VilaGoal confirmed

90+9'

Ronaldo Hunacota

90+3'

K. Torres← D. Palacio

90'

A. F. Bravo Adan← Gustavo Oliveira

90'

D. Fernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NacionalReal

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots21

1.51Expected Goals (xG)2.77

4Corners6

18Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots21

5On Target10

3Off Target8

0Blocked3

7Inside Box10

1Outside Box11

Passing

51%Possession49%

254Total Passes234

188Accurate Passes178

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls10

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Nacional Potosí vs Real Oruro

Real Oruro beat Nacional Potosí 3-2 in Primera División on July 14, 2025.

Goals: W. Alvarez (13' pen), S. Torres (37'), S. Zeballos (45' pen), L. Vila (84'), D. Fernandez (90').

Nacional Potosí controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 21.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte de Potosí in Potosí.

Nacional Potosí vs Real Oruro — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Nacional Potosí vs Real Oruro