Nacional Potosí 0–0 Jorge Wilstermann

Nacional Potosí

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jorge Wilstermann

7/14/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Nacional Potosí54%

×Draw23%

Jorge Wilstermann24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional PotosíExpected goals in this matchJorge Wilstermann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.14

Nacional Potosí

1.84

Jorge Wilstermann

1.14

Nacional Potosí creates 61% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 121 away

2.18

creates per match

1.15

1.12

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nacional Potosí

2.18

Jorge Wilstermann

1.15

allows per match

Nacional Potosí

1.12

Jorge Wilstermann

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw

76%

Nacional Potosí or Jorge Wilstermann

77%

Draw or Jorge Wilstermann

46%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

30%

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

84%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

55%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

28%

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

68%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

32%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

70%

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.18 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.15 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more

54%

level

23%

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

24%

Nacional Potosí at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Poveda

Jorge Wilstermann · G

7.7

Match Events

30'

William ÁlvarezGoal cancelled

51'

Miyhel Ortiz

63'

Adrián Peña

64'

J. Mamani← A. Peña

71'

Martín ProstGoal cancelled

76'

C. Preciado← S. Galindo

81'

Carlitos Rodriguez

82'

M. Delgadillo← C. Rodriguez

83'

W. Saucedo← R. Amaral

89'

R. Corrales← M. Delgadillo

90+2'

A. García← Miyhel Ortiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NacionalJorge

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots7

8Corners2

6Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots7

4On Target2

8Off Target3

5Blocked2

9Inside Box2

8Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

455Total Passes221

373Accurate Passes126

82%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2