Nacional Potosí 2–2 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Nacional Potosí

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Club Guarani

D. Diellos 61'

D. Hoyos 37'

D. Fernandez 88' (pen), 63'

5/6/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte de Potosí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nacional Potosí71%

×Draw17%

Club Guarani12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional PotosíExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.96

Nacional Potosí

2.54

Club Guarani

0.96

Nacional Potosí creates 165% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

1.25

0.67

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Nacional Potosí

2.33

Club Guarani

1.25

allows per match

Nacional Potosí

0.67

Club Guarani

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw

88%

Nacional Potosí or Club Guarani

83%

Draw or Club Guarani

29%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

49%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

92%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

72%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

46%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

62%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

25%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

85%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.33 + Club Guarani defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Club Guarani attack 1.25 + Nacional Potosí defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more

71%

level

17%

Club Guarani scores more

12%

Nacional Potosí at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. Fernandez

Club Guarani · F

8.3

Match Events

29'

B. Pinatares← L. Martinez

37'

D. Hoyos

45+1'

Juan Daniel Pérez

46'

D. Fernandez← W. Mendieta

46'

A. Pereira← F. Fernandez

56'

S. Guerra← M. Prost

57'

Alcides Benítez

61'

D. Diellos↳ V. Abrego

63'

D. Fernandez↳ A. Manzur

65'

N. Barrientos← A. J. Benitez Cabrera

69'

C. Preciado← J. Rojas

74'

V. Cespedes← A. Cantero

81'

P. Azogue← D. Hoyos

81'

W. Alvarez← D. Diellos

81'

S. Torres← L. Pavia

86'

Pedro Azogue

88'

D. FernandezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NacionalClub

Overview

57%Possession43%

22Total Shots15

10Corners5

7Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots15

6On Target5

12Off Target7

4Blocked3

13Inside Box8

9Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

374Total Passes304

316Accurate Passes239

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Nacional Potosí 2–2 Club Guarani

Nacional Potosí and Club Guarani drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 6, 2025.

Goals: D. Hoyos (37'), D. Diellos (61'), D. Fernandez (63', 88' pen).

Nacional Potosí controlled possession (57%) and registered 22 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte de Potosí in Potosí.

Nacional Potosí vs Club Guarani — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Nacional Potosí 2–2 Club Guarani