Nacional Potosí vs Club Destroyers — Primera División 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Nacional Potosí73%
Club Destroyers11%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nacional Potosí creates 196% more chances
Season form · 129 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nacional Potosí ↓
Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches
Club Destroyers away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.81 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nacional Potosí attack 2.23 + Club Destroyers defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.52
Club Destroyers attack 0.58 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 73%?"
Nacional Potosí at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 73% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Jorge Wilstermann
The Strongest
Bolívar
San José
Always Ready
Oriente PetroleroNacional Potosí
Blooming
Royal Pari
Aurora
Real Potosí
GuabiráClub Destroyers
Sport BoysBolívarThe StrongestNacional PotosíBloomingSan JoséJorge WilstermannOriente PetroleroGuabiráAlways ReadyReal PotosíRoyal PariSport BoysAuroraClub DestroyersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Nacional Potosí host Club Destroyers on Saturday, 16 March 2019 at 00:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Nacional Potosí vs Club Destroyers
Nacional Potosí beat Club Destroyers 7-2 in Primera División on March 16, 2019.
The match was played at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte (Potosí).