Nacional Asuncion 0–1 Tacuary: Result & Stats

Nacional Asuncion

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tacuary

3/17/2024

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 10Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nacional Asuncion50%

×Draw27%

Tacuary23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional AsuncionExpected goals in this matchTacuary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.86

Nacional Asuncion

1.40

Tacuary

0.86

Nacional Asuncion creates 63% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 33 away

1.22

creates per match

0.64

1.08

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.22

Tacuary

0.64

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.08

Tacuary

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Tacuary+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Tacuary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw

77%

Nacional Asuncion or Tacuary

73%

Draw or Tacuary

50%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

24%

Tacuary wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

75%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

41%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

17%

Tacuary 1+ goals

58%

Tacuary 2+ goals

21%

Tacuary 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

68%

Tacuary (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

Tacuary away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.22 + Tacuary defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tacuary attack 0.64 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more

50%

level

27%

Tacuary scores more

23%

Nacional Asuncion at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff