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Nacional Asuncion vs SOL DE America — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
5/25/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 20Estadio Martín Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Nacional Asuncion47%
×Draw25%
SOL DE America28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Asuncion
1.56
SOL DE America
1.14

Nacional Asuncion creates 37% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 64 away

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion
1.22
SOL DE America
1.20

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion
1.08
SOL DE America
1.91

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw
72%
Nacional Asuncion or SOL DE America
75%
Draw or SOL DE America
53%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+
24%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals
79%
Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals
46%
Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals
21%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
68%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
32%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)
63%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.22 + SOL DE America defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more
47%
level
25%
SOL DE America scores more
28%

Nacional Asuncion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Nacional Asuncion 3–0 SOL DE America

Nacional Asuncion beat SOL DE America 3-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Martín Torres in Asunción.