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Nacional Asuncion vs Palestino — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Palestino
Palestino
3/6/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundEstadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nacional Asuncion48%
×Draw26%
Palestino27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Asuncion
1.51
Palestino
1.06

Nacional Asuncion creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion
1.57
Palestino
1.27

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion
0.86
Palestino
1.45

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw
73%
Nacional Asuncion or Palestino
74%
Draw or Palestino
52%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+
24%
Palestino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals
78%
Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals
44%
Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals
19%
Palestino 1+ goals
65%
Palestino 2+ goals
29%
Palestino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)
64%
Palestino (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.57 + Palestino defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.51

Palestino attack 1.27 + Nacional Asuncion defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more
48%
level
26%
Palestino scores more
27%

Nacional Asuncion at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional Asuncion vs Palestino

Palestino beat Nacional Asuncion 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.