Nacional Asuncion 1–0 General Caballero

Nacional Asuncion

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

General Caballero

3/30/2025

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio Arsenio Erico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Nacional Asuncion42%

×Draw28%

General Caballero29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional AsuncionExpected goals in this matchGeneral Caballero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.99

Nacional Asuncion

1.26

General Caballero

0.99

Nacional Asuncion creates 27% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 44 away

1.22

creates per match

0.89

1.08

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.22

General Caballero

0.89

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.08

General Caballero

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

General Caballero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw

71%

Nacional Asuncion or General Caballero

72%

Draw or General Caballero

58%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

19%

General Caballero wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

72%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

36%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

13%

General Caballero 1+ goals

63%

General Caballero 2+ goals

26%

General Caballero 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

59%

General Caballero (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

General Caballero away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.22 + General Caballero defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

General Caballero attack 0.89 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more

42%

level

28%

General Caballero scores more

29%

Nacional Asuncion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff