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Nacional AM vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes — Serie D 2018

Nacional AM
Nacional AM
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
5/19/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 5Arena da Amazônia (Manaus, Amazonas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nacional AM74%
×Draw17%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional AM
2.34
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.68

Nacional AM creates 244% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nacional AM
1.81
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.73

allows per match

Nacional AM
0.62
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.87

finishing

Nacional AM+0.00on par
Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional AM ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Nacional AM or draw
91%
Nacional AM or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
83%
Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
26%

Winning margin

Nacional AM wins by 2+
51%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Nacional AM 1+ goals
90%
Nacional AM 2+ goals
67%
Nacional AM 3+ goals
41%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
49%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
15%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nacional AM (draw refunded)
89%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional AM at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional AM attack 1.81 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.34

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + Nacional AM defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Nacional AM scores more
74%
level
17%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
9%

Nacional AM at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Nacional AM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional AM vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes

Nacional AM beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2-0 in Serie D on May 19, 2018.

The match was played at Arena da Amazônia (Manaus, Amazonas).