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Nacional AC MG vs Varginha EC — Mineiro - 2 2026

Nacional AC MG
Nacional AC MG
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Varginha EC
Varginha EC
Unknown 89', 81', 77', 46'
Kekeu 9'
6/17/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 11Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nacional AC MG46%
×Draw27%
Varginha EC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional AC MG
1.39
Varginha EC
0.98

Nacional AC MG creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 26 away

creates per match

Nacional AC MG
1.32
Varginha EC
0.92

allows per match

Nacional AC MG
1.03
Varginha EC
1.46

finishing

Nacional AC MG+0.00on par
Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional AC MG ↓

Varginha EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nacional AC MG or draw
73%
Nacional AC MG or Varginha EC
73%
Draw or Varginha EC
54%

Winning margin

Nacional AC MG wins by 2+
22%
Varginha EC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nacional AC MG 1+ goals
75%
Nacional AC MG 2+ goals
40%
Nacional AC MG 3+ goals
16%
Varginha EC 1+ goals
62%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
26%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nacional AC MG (draw refunded)
64%
Varginha EC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional AC MG at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional AC MG attack 1.32 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Nacional AC MG defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nacional AC MG scores more
46%
level
27%
Varginha EC scores more
27%

Nacional AC MG at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nacional AC MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Kekeu
46'
77'
81'
89'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Nacional AC MG 4–1 Varginha EC

Nacional AC MG beat Varginha EC 4-1 in Mineiro - 2 on June 17, 2023.

Goals: Kekeu (9'), ? (46', 77', 81', 89').

The match was played at Estádio Soares de Azevedo in Muriaé, Minas Gerais.