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Náchod vs Polaban Nymburk — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Náchod
Náchod
PST
13:30
Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
3/14/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 17Sportivní areál Náchod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Náchod70%
×Draw18%
Polaban Nymburk12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náchod
2.30
Polaban Nymburk
0.85

Náchod creates 171% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 12 away

creates per match

Náchod
1.69
Polaban Nymburk
0.33

allows per match

Náchod
1.36
Polaban Nymburk
2.92

finishing

Náchod+0.00on par
Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náchod ↓

Polaban Nymburk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Náchod or draw
88%
Náchod or Polaban Nymburk
82%
Draw or Polaban Nymburk
30%

Winning margin

Náchod wins by 2+
46%
Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Náchod 1+ goals
90%
Náchod 2+ goals
67%
Náchod 3+ goals
40%
Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
57%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
21%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Náchod (draw refunded)
85%
Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náchod at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náchod attack 1.69 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.30

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Náchod defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Náchod scores more
70%
level
18%
Polaban Nymburk scores more
12%

Náchod at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Náchod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Náchod host Polaban Nymburk

March 14, 2020: Náchod take on Polaban Nymburk in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Náchod host Polaban Nymburk at Sportivní areál Náchod.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.