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Náchod vs Horky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Náchod
Náchod
FT
3 – 0
Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
8/24/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 3Sportivní areál Náchod (Náchod)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Náchod60%
×Draw20%
Horky nad Jizerou20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náchod
2.17
Horky nad Jizerou
1.16

Náchod creates 87% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 25 away

creates per match

Náchod
1.69
Horky nad Jizerou
0.96

allows per match

Náchod
1.36
Horky nad Jizerou
2.64

finishing

Náchod+0.00on par
Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náchod ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Náchod or draw
80%
Náchod or Horky nad Jizerou
80%
Draw or Horky nad Jizerou
40%

Winning margin

Náchod wins by 2+
37%
Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Náchod 1+ goals
89%
Náchod 2+ goals
64%
Náchod 3+ goals
36%
Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
69%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
32%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Náchod (draw refunded)
75%
Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náchod at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.36 · 55 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náchod attack 1.69 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.17

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Náchod defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Náchod scores more
60%
level
20%
Horky nad Jizerou scores more
20%

Náchod at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Náchod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Náchod vs Horky nad Jizerou

Náchod beat Horky nad Jizerou 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Sportivní areál Náchod (Náchod).