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Nação vs Carlos Renaux — Catarinense - 2 2022

Nação
Nação
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Carlos Renaux
Carlos Renaux
5/28/2023Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 1Arena Joinville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nação41%
×Draw28%
Carlos Renaux31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nação
1.25
Carlos Renaux
1.04

Nação creates 20% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Nação
1.28
Carlos Renaux
1.09

allows per match

Nação
1.00
Carlos Renaux
1.23

finishing

Nação+0.00on par
Carlos Renaux+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nação ↓

Carlos Renaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nação or draw
69%
Nação or Carlos Renaux
72%
Draw or Carlos Renaux
59%

Winning margin

Nação wins by 2+
18%
Carlos Renaux wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nação 1+ goals
71%
Nação 2+ goals
36%
Nação 3+ goals
13%
Carlos Renaux 1+ goals
65%
Carlos Renaux 2+ goals
28%
Carlos Renaux 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nação (draw refunded)
57%
Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nação at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Carlos Renaux away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nação attack 1.28 + Carlos Renaux defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Carlos Renaux attack 1.09 + Nação defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nação scores more
41%
level
28%
Carlos Renaux scores more
31%

Nação at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nação will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Nação 2–0 Carlos Renaux

Nação beat Carlos Renaux 2-0 in Catarinense - 2 on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Joinville in Joinville, Santa Catarina.