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Nação U20 vs Marcilio Dias U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Nação U20
Nação U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Marcilio Dias U20
Marcilio Dias U20
7/10/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 20Nação Esportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nação U2033%
×Draw23%
Marcilio Dias U2043%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nação U20
1.48
Marcilio Dias U20
1.71

Marcilio Dias U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

creates per match

Nação U20
1.27
Marcilio Dias U20
1.79

allows per match

Nação U20
1.62
Marcilio Dias U20
1.68

finishing

Nação U20+0.00on par
Marcilio Dias U20+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nação U20 ↓

Marcilio Dias U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nação U20 or draw
57%
Nação U20 or Marcilio Dias U20
77%
Draw or Marcilio Dias U20
67%

Winning margin

Nação U20 wins by 2+
16%
Marcilio Dias U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Nação U20 1+ goals
77%
Nação U20 2+ goals
43%
Nação U20 3+ goals
19%
Marcilio Dias U20 1+ goals
82%
Marcilio Dias U20 2+ goals
51%
Marcilio Dias U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Nação U20 (draw refunded)
44%
Marcilio Dias U20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nação U20 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

Marcilio Dias U20 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nação U20 attack 1.27 + Marcilio Dias U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Marcilio Dias U20 attack 1.79 + Nação U20 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nação U20 scores more
33%
level
23%
Marcilio Dias U20 scores more
43%

Marcilio Dias U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Marcilio Dias U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nação U20 vs Marcilio Dias U20

Marcilio Dias U20 beat Nação U20 3-1 in Catarinense U20 on July 10, 2024.

The match was played at Nação Esportes in Joinville, Santa Catarina.