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Nação U20 vs Internacional SC U20 — Catarinense U20 2024

Nação U20
Nação U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Internacional SC U20
Internacional SC U20
4/7/2024Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · 1st Phase - 3Nação Esportes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Nação U2079%
×Draw12%
Internacional SC U208%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nação U20
3.24
Internacional SC U20
1.01

Nação U20 creates 221% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

creates per match

Nação U20
1.27
Internacional SC U20
0.40

allows per match

Nação U20
1.62
Internacional SC U20
5.20

finishing

Nação U20+0.00on par
Internacional SC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nação U20 ↓

Internacional SC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Nação U20 or draw
92%
Nação U20 or Internacional SC U20
88%
Draw or Internacional SC U20
21%

Winning margin

Nação U20 wins by 2+
61%
Internacional SC U20 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nação U20 1+ goals
96%
Nação U20 2+ goals
83%
Nação U20 3+ goals
61%
Internacional SC U20 1+ goals
64%
Internacional SC U20 2+ goals
27%
Internacional SC U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nação U20 (draw refunded)
90%
Internacional SC U20 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nação U20 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

Internacional SC U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nação U20 attack 1.27 + Internacional SC U20 defence 5.20 → ÷2 → 3.24

Internacional SC U20 attack 0.40 + Nação U20 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Nação U20 scores more
79%
level
12%
Internacional SC U20 scores more
8%

Nação U20 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Nação U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nação U20 vs Internacional SC U20

Nação U20 beat Internacional SC U20 3-2 in Catarinense U20 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Nação Esportes in Joinville, Santa Catarina.