NAC U21 2–0 PEC Zwolle U21: Result & Stats

NAC U21

FT

2 – 0

PEC Zwolle U21

2/4/2023

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 2Sportpark Heksenwiel veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

NAC U2131%

×Draw23%

PEC Zwolle U2146%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC U21Expected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.77

NAC U21

1.41

PEC Zwolle U21

1.77

PEC Zwolle U21 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 39 away

1.19

creates per match

1.13

2.41

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

NAC U21

1.19

PEC Zwolle U21

1.13

allows per match

NAC U21

2.41

PEC Zwolle U21

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAC U21+0.00on par

PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC U21 ↓

PEC Zwolle U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

NAC U21 or draw

54%

NAC U21 or PEC Zwolle U21

77%

Draw or PEC Zwolle U21

69%

Winning margin

NAC U21 wins by 2+

14%

PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

NAC U21 1+ goals

76%

NAC U21 2+ goals

41%

NAC U21 3+ goals

17%

PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals

83%

PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals

53%

PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

NAC U21 (draw refunded)

40%

PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC U21 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

PEC Zwolle U21 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC U21 attack 1.19 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 1.13 + NAC U21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NAC U21 scores more

31%

level

23%

PEC Zwolle U21 scores more

46%

PEC Zwolle U21 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PEC Zwolle U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff