NAC Breda W 1–3 Feyenoord W: Result & Stats

NAC Breda W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Feyenoord W

B. Franken 76'

S. Koopman 86'

K. Iwasaki 45'

C. Obispo 36'

9/7/2025

Eredivisie Women · Round 1Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

NAC Breda W22%

×Draw22%

Feyenoord W56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC Breda WExpected goals in this matchFeyenoord W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.00

NAC Breda W

1.18

Feyenoord W

2.00

Feyenoord W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 55 away

1.00

creates per match

1.45

2.55

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

NAC Breda W

1.00

Feyenoord W

1.45

allows per match

NAC Breda W

2.55

Feyenoord W

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAC Breda W+0.00on par

Feyenoord W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda W ↓

Feyenoord W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

NAC Breda W or draw

44%

NAC Breda W or Feyenoord W

78%

Draw or Feyenoord W

78%

Winning margin

NAC Breda W wins by 2+

9%

Feyenoord W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

NAC Breda W 1+ goals

69%

NAC Breda W 2+ goals

33%

NAC Breda W 3+ goals

12%

Feyenoord W 1+ goals

86%

Feyenoord W 2+ goals

59%

Feyenoord W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda W (draw refunded)

28%

Feyenoord W (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

Feyenoord W away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda W attack 1.00 + Feyenoord W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Feyenoord W attack 1.45 + NAC Breda W defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

NAC Breda W scores more

22%

level

22%

Feyenoord W scores more

56%

Feyenoord W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Feyenoord W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

C. Obispo↳ M. Itamura

45'

K. Iwasaki↳ E. de Graaf

46'

N. van den Burg← E. Fertoute

46'

F. Stoit← K. Iwasaki

61'

K. Hendriks← S. Aurelio

62'

E. Yetim← J. Schneijderberg

62'

S. Koopman← E. de Graaf

62'

R. van de Lavoir← Z. Hulswit

76'

B. Franken↳ Y. van Goch

78'

A. Verspaget← J. Brandau

85'

J. Visser← I. van Dalen

86'

S. Koopman↳ M. Itamura

89'

E. Pijnenburg← T. van Bentem

NAC

Feyenoord

1

Weimar

5

⚽

Obispo

14

A

▼

Graaf

17

Sluijs

6

▼

Brandau

7

⚽

▼

Iwasaki

21

▼

Bentem

22

Deursen

33

Kerkhoven

28

▼

Hulswit

23

A

Itamura

1

Haan

15

▼

Fertoute

18

Houweling

4

Verhoef

5

A

Goch

8

▼

Aurelio

11

▼

Schneijde

6

Heijblom

20

▼

Dalen

27

Vliet

9

⚽

Franken

Manager: Jan de Hoon

46'▲N. van den Burg←▼E. Fertoute

61'▲K. Hendriks←▼S. Aurelio

62'▲E. Yetim←▼J. Schneijderberg

85'▲J. Visser←▼I. van Dalen

NAC Breda W substitutes

3Burg17Blij25Yetim22Visser7Promes19Oussoren12Meerding14Hendriks24Goutier

Manager: Jessica Torny

46'▲F. Stoit←▼K. Iwasaki

62'▲S. Koopman←▼E. de Graaf

62'▲R. van de Lavoir←▼Z. Hulswit

78'▲A. Verspaget←▼J. Brandau

89'▲E. Pijnenburg←▼T. van Bentem

Feyenoord W substitutes

42Buabadi15Dinkla18Heij9Koopman8Pijnenburg19Stoit4Verspaget16Eijk25Lavoir