NAC Breda W 2–3 AZ W: Result & Stats

NAC Breda W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

AZ W

J. Visser 88'

J. Schneijderberg 16'

E. Bakker 65'

D. van Lunteren 43'

J. van Beijeren 28'

3/15/2026

Eredivisie Women · Round 16Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

NAC Breda W26%

×Draw21%

AZ W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC Breda WExpected goals in this matchAZ W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

2.21

NAC Breda W

1.51

AZ W

2.21

AZ W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

1.00

creates per match

1.88

2.55

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

NAC Breda W

1.00

AZ W

1.88

allows per match

NAC Breda W

2.55

AZ W

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAC Breda W+0.00on par

AZ W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda W ↓

AZ W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

NAC Breda W or draw

47%

NAC Breda W or AZ W

79%

Draw or AZ W

74%

Winning margin

NAC Breda W wins by 2+

12%

AZ W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

NAC Breda W 1+ goals

78%

NAC Breda W 2+ goals

44%

NAC Breda W 3+ goals

19%

AZ W 1+ goals

89%

AZ W 2+ goals

65%

AZ W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda W (draw refunded)

33%

AZ W (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

AZ W away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda W attack 1.00 + AZ W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.51

AZ W attack 1.88 + NAC Breda W defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NAC Breda W scores more

26%

level

21%

AZ W scores more

53%

AZ W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AZ W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

J. Schneijderberg

28'

J. van Beijeren↳ E. de Vries

43'

D. van Lunteren

63'

E. Bakker← F. Kroese

65'

J. Visser← I. van Dalen

65'

E. Bakker↳ D. van Lunteren

75'

A. Harting← D. De Ridder

85'

S. de Blij← S. Aurelio

85'

M. Goutier← Y. van Goch

88'

J. Visser

NAC

AZ

13

Copier

3

▼

Ridder

4

Woons

23

Stoop

24

A

21

8

15

10

⚽A

Lunteren

6

⚽

Beijeren

11

▼

1

2

3

4

5

▼

Goch

20

▼

Dalen

6

Heijblom

8

▼

Aurelio

11

⚽

Schneijde

14

Hendriks

9

Franken

Manager: Jan de Hoon

65'▲J. Visser←▼I. van Dalen

85'▲S. de Blij←▼S. Aurelio

85'▲M. Goutier←▼Y. van Goch

NAC Breda W substitutes

27Vliet18Houwelingen17Blij25Yetim22Visser16Schuylenburg7Promes19Oussoren12Meerding24Goutier15Fertoute23Buitendijk

Manager: Wouter de Vogel

63'▲E. Bakker←▼F. Kroese

75'▲A. Harting←▼D. De Ridder

AZ W substitutes

25Bakker16Harting28Harting31Leek22Thomas99Visser

NAC Breda W 2 – 3 AZ W

AZ W beat NAC Breda W 3-2 in Eredivisie Women on March 15, 2026.

Goals: J. Schneijderberg (16'), J. van Beijeren (28'), D. van Lunteren (43'), E. Bakker (65'), J. Visser (88').

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.

NAC Breda W vs AZ W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

NAC Breda W 2 – 3 AZ W