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NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
3/1/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 28Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

NAC Breda58%
×Draw22%
Jong Utrecht20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.98
Jong Utrecht
1.08

NAC Breda creates 83% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 147 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.80
Jong Utrecht
1.07

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.08
Jong Utrecht
2.16

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par
Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Jong Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
80%
NAC Breda or Jong Utrecht
78%
Draw or Jong Utrecht
42%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
35%
Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
86%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
59%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
31%
Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
66%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
29%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
74%
Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.80 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + NAC Breda defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

NAC Breda scores more
58%
level
22%
Jong Utrecht scores more
20%

NAC Breda at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: NAC Breda 3–1 Jong Utrecht

NAC Breda beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.