NAC Breda 2–0 Den Bosch: Result & Stats

NAC Breda

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Den Bosch

2/13/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 26Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

NAC Breda55%

×Draw22%

Den Bosch23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC BredaExpected goals in this matchDen Bosch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.14

NAC Breda

1.90

Den Bosch

1.14

NAC Breda creates 67% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 148 away

1.80

creates per match

1.19

1.08

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

NAC Breda

1.80

Den Bosch

1.19

allows per match

NAC Breda

1.08

Den Bosch

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par

Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Den Bosch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw

77%

NAC Breda or Den Bosch

78%

Draw or Den Bosch

45%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+

32%

Den Bosch wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals

85%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

56%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

29%

Den Bosch 1+ goals

68%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

32%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

71%

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.01 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.80 + Den Bosch defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.90

Den Bosch attack 1.19 + NAC Breda defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

NAC Breda scores more

55%

level

22%

Den Bosch scores more

23%

NAC Breda at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff