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Na God vs WAFA — Division One League 2025

Na God
Na God
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
12/21/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Na God44%
×Draw27%
WAFA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Na God
1.39
WAFA
1.10

Na God creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Na God
1.50
WAFA
1.07

allows per match

Na God
1.13
WAFA
1.27

finishing

Na God+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Na God ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Na God or draw
70%
Na God or WAFA
73%
Draw or WAFA
56%

Winning margin

Na God wins by 2+
21%
WAFA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Na God 1+ goals
75%
Na God 2+ goals
40%
Na God 3+ goals
16%
WAFA 1+ goals
67%
WAFA 2+ goals
30%
WAFA 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Na God (draw refunded)
59%
WAFA (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Na God at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

WAFA away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Na God attack 1.50 + WAFA defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

WAFA attack 1.07 + Na God defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Na God scores more
44%
level
27%
WAFA scores more
30%

Na God at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Na God will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Na God 1–1 WAFA

Na God and WAFA drew 1-1 in Division One League on December 21, 2025.