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Na God vs Nania — Division One League 2025

Na God
Na God
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nania
Nania
5/16/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Na God45%
×Draw29%
Nania26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Na God
1.25
Nania
0.86

Na God creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Na God
1.50
Nania
0.60

allows per match

Na God
1.13
Nania
1.00

finishing

Na God+0.00on par
Nania+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Na God ↓

Nania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Na God or draw
74%
Na God or Nania
71%
Draw or Nania
55%

Winning margin

Na God wins by 2+
20%
Nania wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Na God 1+ goals
71%
Na God 2+ goals
36%
Na God 3+ goals
13%
Nania 1+ goals
58%
Nania 2+ goals
21%
Nania 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Na God (draw refunded)
64%
Nania (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Na God at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Nania away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Na God attack 1.50 + Nania defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nania attack 0.60 + Na God defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Na God scores more
45%
level
29%
Nania scores more
26%

Na God at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Na God will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Na God 0 – 1 Nania

Nania beat Na God 1-0 in Division One League on May 16, 2026.