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Na God vs Great Olympics — Division One League 2025

Na God
Na God
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Great Olympics
Great Olympics
10/11/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Na God42%
×Draw30%
Great Olympics27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Na God
1.15
Great Olympics
0.86

Na God creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Na God
1.50
Great Olympics
0.60

allows per match

Na God
1.13
Great Olympics
0.80

finishing

Na God+0.00on par
Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Na God ↓

Great Olympics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Na God or draw
73%
Na God or Great Olympics
70%
Draw or Great Olympics
58%

Winning margin

Na God wins by 2+
18%
Great Olympics wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Na God 1+ goals
68%
Na God 2+ goals
32%
Na God 3+ goals
11%
Great Olympics 1+ goals
58%
Great Olympics 2+ goals
21%
Great Olympics 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Na God (draw refunded)
61%
Great Olympics (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Na God at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Na God attack 1.50 + Great Olympics defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Great Olympics attack 0.60 + Na God defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Na God scores more
42%
level
30%
Great Olympics scores more
27%

Na God at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Na God will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Na God 1–0 Great Olympics

Na God beat Great Olympics 1-0 in Division One League on October 11, 2025.