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Na God vs Accra Lions — Division One League 2025

Na God
Na God
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
1/3/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Na God39%
×Draw28%
Accra Lions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Na God
1.25
Accra Lions
1.13

Na God creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Na God
1.50
Accra Lions
1.13

allows per match

Na God
1.13
Accra Lions
1.00

finishing

Na God+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Na God ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Na God or draw
67%
Na God or Accra Lions
72%
Draw or Accra Lions
61%

Winning margin

Na God wins by 2+
17%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Na God 1+ goals
71%
Na God 2+ goals
36%
Na God 3+ goals
13%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
68%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
31%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Na God (draw refunded)
54%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Na God at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Na God attack 1.50 + Accra Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + Na God defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Na God scores more
39%
level
28%
Accra Lions scores more
33%

Na God at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Na God will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Na God 2–1 Accra Lions

Na God beat Accra Lions 2-1 in Division One League on January 3, 2026.