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N'Zidane vs Toulde — Premier League 2020

N'Zidane
N'Zidane
FT
3 – 0
Toulde
Toulde
10/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Stade Cansado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

N'Zidane63%
×Draw22%
Toulde15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

N'Zidane
1.85
Toulde
0.77

N'Zidane creates 140% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

N'Zidane
1.50
Toulde
0.43

allows per match

N'Zidane
1.11
Toulde
2.21

finishing

N'Zidane+0.00on par
Toulde+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

N'Zidane ↓

Toulde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

N'Zidane or draw
85%
N'Zidane or Toulde
78%
Draw or Toulde
37%

Winning margin

N'Zidane wins by 2+
37%
Toulde wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

N'Zidane 1+ goals
84%
N'Zidane 2+ goals
55%
N'Zidane 3+ goals
28%
Toulde 1+ goals
54%
Toulde 2+ goals
18%
Toulde 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

N'Zidane (draw refunded)
81%
Toulde (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

N'Zidane at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Toulde away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

N'Zidane attack 1.50 + Toulde defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Toulde attack 0.43 + N'Zidane defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

N'Zidane scores more
63%
level
22%
Toulde scores more
15%

N'Zidane at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "N'Zidane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: N'Zidane vs Toulde

N'Zidane beat Toulde 3-0 in Premier League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cansado in Nouadhibou.