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N'Zidane vs Pompiers — Premier League 2020

N'Zidane
N'Zidane
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pompiers
Pompiers
2/15/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

N'Zidane44%
×Draw28%
Pompiers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

N'Zidane
1.30
Pompiers
0.96

N'Zidane creates 35% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

creates per match

N'Zidane
1.50
Pompiers
0.81

allows per match

N'Zidane
1.11
Pompiers
1.10

finishing

N'Zidane+0.00on par
Pompiers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

N'Zidane ↓

Pompiers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

N'Zidane or draw
72%
N'Zidane or Pompiers
72%
Draw or Pompiers
56%

Winning margin

N'Zidane wins by 2+
20%
Pompiers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

N'Zidane 1+ goals
73%
N'Zidane 2+ goals
37%
N'Zidane 3+ goals
14%
Pompiers 1+ goals
62%
Pompiers 2+ goals
25%
Pompiers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

N'Zidane (draw refunded)
62%
Pompiers (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

N'Zidane at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Pompiers away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

N'Zidane attack 1.50 + Pompiers defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Pompiers attack 0.81 + N'Zidane defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

N'Zidane scores more
44%
level
28%
Pompiers scores more
28%

N'Zidane at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "N'Zidane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: N'Zidane 0–1 Pompiers

Pompiers beat N'Zidane 1-0 in Premier League on February 15, 2026.