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N'Zidane vs Kaédi — Premier League 2020

N'Zidane
N'Zidane
FT
4 – 3
Kaédi
Kaédi
12/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

N'Zidane51%
×Draw25%
Kaédi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

N'Zidane
1.57
Kaédi
1.00

N'Zidane creates 57% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 78 away

creates per match

N'Zidane
1.50
Kaédi
0.88

allows per match

N'Zidane
1.11
Kaédi
1.64

finishing

N'Zidane+0.00on par
Kaédi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

N'Zidane ↓

Kaédi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

N'Zidane or draw
76%
N'Zidane or Kaédi
75%
Draw or Kaédi
49%

Winning margin

N'Zidane wins by 2+
26%
Kaédi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

N'Zidane 1+ goals
79%
N'Zidane 2+ goals
46%
N'Zidane 3+ goals
21%
Kaédi 1+ goals
63%
Kaédi 2+ goals
26%
Kaédi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

N'Zidane (draw refunded)
68%
Kaédi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

N'Zidane at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Kaédi away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.64 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

N'Zidane attack 1.50 + Kaédi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kaédi attack 0.88 + N'Zidane defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

N'Zidane scores more
51%
level
25%
Kaédi scores more
24%

N'Zidane at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "N'Zidane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: N'Zidane 4–3 Kaédi

N'Zidane beat Kaédi 4-3 in Premier League on December 13, 2025.