Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

N'Zidane vs Al Merreikh — Premier League 2020

N'Zidane
N'Zidane
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
5/16/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

N'Zidane38%
×Draw28%
Al Merreikh33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

N'Zidane
1.19
Al Merreikh
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

N'Zidane
1.50
Al Merreikh
1.07

allows per match

N'Zidane
1.11
Al Merreikh
0.87

finishing

N'Zidane+0.00on par
Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

N'Zidane ↓

Al Merreikh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

N'Zidane or draw
67%
N'Zidane or Al Merreikh
72%
Draw or Al Merreikh
62%

Winning margin

N'Zidane wins by 2+
16%
Al Merreikh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

N'Zidane 1+ goals
70%
N'Zidane 2+ goals
33%
N'Zidane 3+ goals
12%
Al Merreikh 1+ goals
66%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
30%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

N'Zidane (draw refunded)
53%
Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

N'Zidane at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

N'Zidane attack 1.50 + Al Merreikh defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Merreikh attack 1.07 + N'Zidane defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

N'Zidane scores more
38%
level
28%
Al Merreikh scores more
33%

N'Zidane at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "N'Zidane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: N'Zidane vs Al Merreikh

N'Zidane and Al Merreikh drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Nouakchott in Nouakchott.