N'Zidane 1–2 Al Hilal Omdurman: Result & Stats

N'Zidane

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al Hilal Omdurman

2/21/2025

Premier League · Round 18Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

N'Zidane24%

×Draw25%

Al Hilal Omdurman51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

N'ZidaneExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Omdurman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.56

N'Zidane

0.97

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.56

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 61% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

1.11

allows per match

0.44

creates per match

N'Zidane

1.50

Al Hilal Omdurman

2.00

allows per match

N'Zidane

1.11

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

N'Zidane+0.00on par

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

N'Zidane ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

N'Zidane or draw

49%

N'Zidane or Al Hilal Omdurman

75%

Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman

76%

Winning margin

N'Zidane wins by 2+

8%

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

N'Zidane 1+ goals

62%

N'Zidane 2+ goals

25%

N'Zidane 3+ goals

7%

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

79%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

46%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

N'Zidane (draw refunded)

32%

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

N'Zidane at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

N'Zidane attack 1.50 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.00 + N'Zidane defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

N'Zidane scores more

24%

level

25%

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

51%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff