Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Næsby vs Vejgaard B — 3. Division 2021

Næsby
Næsby
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vejgaard B
Vejgaard B
9/2/20233. Division3. Division · Round 5ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Næsby52%
×Draw22%
Vejgaard B26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
1.96
Vejgaard B
1.34

Næsby creates 46% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 32 away

creates per match

Næsby
1.95
Vejgaard B
1.25

allows per match

Næsby
1.44
Vejgaard B
1.97

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
Vejgaard B+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Vejgaard B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
74%
Næsby or Vejgaard B
78%
Draw or Vejgaard B
48%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
30%
Vejgaard B wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
86%
Næsby 2+ goals
58%
Næsby 3+ goals
31%
Vejgaard B 1+ goals
74%
Vejgaard B 2+ goals
39%
Vejgaard B 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
66%
Vejgaard B (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Vejgaard B away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.95 + Vejgaard B defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.96

Vejgaard B attack 1.25 + Næsby defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Næsby scores more
52%
level
22%
Vejgaard B scores more
26%

Næsby at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Næsby vs Vejgaard B

Vejgaard B beat Næsby 2-1 in 3. Division on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at ALPI Arena Næsby in Odense.