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Næsby vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Næsby
Næsby
FT
2 – 0
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
M. Lund 78', 40' (pen)
6/5/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Næsby36%
×Draw26%
Thisted FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
1.28
Thisted FC
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Næsby
1.08
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

Næsby
1.46
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
62%
Næsby or Thisted FC
74%
Draw or Thisted FC
64%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
16%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
72%
Næsby 2+ goals
37%
Næsby 3+ goals
14%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
74%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
38%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
48%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.08 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.28

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Næsby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Næsby scores more
36%
level
26%
Thisted FC scores more
38%

Thisted FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Thisted FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
M. LundPenalty
78'
M. Lund

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Næsby vs Thisted FC

Næsby beat Thisted FC 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on June 5, 2021.

Goals: M. Lund (40' pen, 78').

The match was played at ALPI Arena Næsby in Odense.