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Næsby vs Sydvest — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Næsby
Næsby
FT
0 – 2
Sydvest
Sydvest
M. Nielsen 69'
A. Murati 56'
9/20/20202nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Næsby42%
×Draw25%
Sydvest33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
1.52
Sydvest
1.33

Næsby creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Næsby
1.08
Sydvest
1.20

allows per match

Næsby
1.46
Sydvest
1.95

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
Sydvest+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Sydvest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
67%
Næsby or Sydvest
75%
Draw or Sydvest
58%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
21%
Sydvest wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
78%
Næsby 2+ goals
45%
Næsby 3+ goals
20%
Sydvest 1+ goals
74%
Sydvest 2+ goals
38%
Sydvest 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
56%
Sydvest (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Sydvest away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.08 + Sydvest defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sydvest attack 1.20 + Næsby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Næsby scores more
42%
level
25%
Sydvest scores more
33%

Næsby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
A. Murati
69'
M. Nielsen
78'
M. Hedeager Jensen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Næsby 0–2 Sydvest

Sydvest beat Næsby 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 20, 2020.

Goals: A. Murati (56'), M. Nielsen (69').

The match was played at ALPI Arena Næsby in Odense.