Næsby 3–0 Slagelse B&I: Result & Stats

Næsby

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slagelse B&I

8/18/2021

3. Division · Round 3ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Næsby59%

×Draw20%

Slagelse B&I21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NæsbyExpected goals in this matchSlagelse B&I

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.25

Næsby

2.23

Slagelse B&I

1.25

Næsby creates 78% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 16 away

1.95

creates per match

1.06

1.44

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Næsby

1.95

Slagelse B&I

1.06

allows per match

Næsby

1.44

Slagelse B&I

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par

Slagelse B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Slagelse B&I →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Næsby or draw

79%

Næsby or Slagelse B&I

80%

Draw or Slagelse B&I

41%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+

37%

Slagelse B&I wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals

89%

Næsby 2+ goals

65%

Næsby 3+ goals

38%

Slagelse B&I 1+ goals

71%

Slagelse B&I 2+ goals

36%

Slagelse B&I 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)

74%

Slagelse B&I (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Slagelse B&I away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.95 + Slagelse B&I defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.23

Slagelse B&I attack 1.06 + Næsby defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Næsby scores more

59%

level

20%

Slagelse B&I scores more

21%

Næsby at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff