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Næsby vs Middelfart — 3. Division 2021

Næsby
Næsby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Middelfart
Middelfart
R. Kakeeto 29'
4/1/20233. Division3. Division · Round 20OB-Ådalen Kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Næsby26%
×Draw23%
Middelfart50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
1.25
Middelfart
1.81

Middelfart creates 45% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 16 away

creates per match

Næsby
1.95
Middelfart
2.19

allows per match

Næsby
1.44
Middelfart
0.56

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Middelfart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
50%
Næsby or Middelfart
77%
Draw or Middelfart
74%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
11%
Middelfart wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
71%
Næsby 2+ goals
36%
Næsby 3+ goals
13%
Middelfart 1+ goals
84%
Middelfart 2+ goals
54%
Middelfart 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
34%
Middelfart (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Middelfart away — creates 2.19, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.95 + Middelfart defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Middelfart attack 2.19 + Næsby defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Næsby scores more
26%
level
23%
Middelfart scores more
50%

Middelfart at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
R. Kakeeto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: Næsby 0–1 Middelfart

Middelfart beat Næsby 1-0 in 3. Division on April 1, 2023.

Goals: R. Kakeeto (29').

The match was played at OB-Ådalen Kunstgræsbane in Odense.