Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Næsby vs Karlslunde — 3. Division 2021

Næsby
Næsby
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Karlslunde
Karlslunde
10/16/20213. Division3. Division · Round 12ALPI Arena Næsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Næsby51%
×Draw22%
Karlslunde28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Næsby
2.04
Karlslunde
1.47

Næsby creates 39% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 16 away

creates per match

Næsby
1.95
Karlslunde
1.50

allows per match

Næsby
1.44
Karlslunde
2.13

finishing

Næsby+0.00on par
Karlslunde+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Næsby ↓

Karlslunde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Næsby or draw
72%
Næsby or Karlslunde
78%
Draw or Karlslunde
49%

Winning margin

Næsby wins by 2+
29%
Karlslunde wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Næsby 1+ goals
87%
Næsby 2+ goals
60%
Næsby 3+ goals
33%
Karlslunde 1+ goals
77%
Karlslunde 2+ goals
43%
Karlslunde 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Næsby (draw refunded)
65%
Karlslunde (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Næsby at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Karlslunde away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Næsby attack 1.95 + Karlslunde defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.04

Karlslunde attack 1.50 + Næsby defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Næsby scores more
51%
level
22%
Karlslunde scores more
28%

Næsby at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: Næsby 4–0 Karlslunde

Næsby beat Karlslunde 4-0 in 3. Division on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at ALPI Arena Næsby in Odense.