Nørresundby 4–0 Vatanspor: Result & Stats

Nørresundby

FT

4 – 0

Vatanspor

11/3/2018

League #127 · Round 14NFB Kunstgræs Lindholm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nørresundby66%

×Draw18%

Vatanspor16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NørresundbyExpected goals in this matchVatanspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.16

Nørresundby

2.51

Vatanspor

1.16

Nørresundby creates 116% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

2.67

creates per match

1.64

0.67

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Nørresundby

2.67

Vatanspor

1.64

allows per match

Nørresundby

0.67

Vatanspor

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nørresundby+0.00on par

Vatanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nørresundby ↓

Vatanspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Nørresundby or draw

84%

Nørresundby or Vatanspor

82%

Draw or Vatanspor

34%

Winning margin

Nørresundby wins by 2+

44%

Vatanspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nørresundby 1+ goals

92%

Nørresundby 2+ goals

71%

Nørresundby 3+ goals

45%

Vatanspor 1+ goals

69%

Vatanspor 2+ goals

32%

Vatanspor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nørresundby (draw refunded)

81%

Vatanspor (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nørresundby at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Vatanspor away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nørresundby attack 2.67 + Vatanspor defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.51

Vatanspor attack 1.64 + Nørresundby defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Nørresundby scores more

66%

level

18%

Vatanspor scores more

16%

Nørresundby at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nørresundby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff