Mzuni 1–2 Moyale Barracks: Result & Stats

Mzuni

FT

1 – 2

Moyale Barracks

7/18/2021

Super League · Round 18Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mzuni37%

×Draw30%

Moyale Barracks34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MzuniExpected goals in this matchMoyale Barracks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.03

Mzuni

1.09

Moyale Barracks

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 84 away

0.68

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mzuni

0.68

Moyale Barracks

0.86

allows per match

Mzuni

1.21

Moyale Barracks

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mzuni+0.00on par

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mzuni ↓

Moyale Barracks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mzuni or draw

66%

Mzuni or Moyale Barracks

70%

Draw or Moyale Barracks

63%

Winning margin

Mzuni wins by 2+

15%

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mzuni 1+ goals

66%

Mzuni 2+ goals

30%

Mzuni 3+ goals

10%

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals

64%

Moyale Barracks 2+ goals

28%

Moyale Barracks 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mzuni (draw refunded)

52%

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mzuni at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Moyale Barracks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mzuni attack 0.68 + Moyale Barracks defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.09

Moyale Barracks attack 0.86 + Mzuni defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mzuni scores more

37%

level

30%

Moyale Barracks scores more

34%

Mzuni at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mzuni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff