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Mzuni vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

Mzuni
Mzuni
FT
1 – 1
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
6/6/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mzuni42%
×Draw31%
Chitipa United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mzuni
1.11
Chitipa United
0.84

Mzuni creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 65 away

creates per match

Mzuni
0.68
Chitipa United
0.48

allows per match

Mzuni
1.21
Chitipa United
1.54

finishing

Mzuni+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mzuni ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mzuni or draw
73%
Mzuni or Chitipa United
69%
Draw or Chitipa United
58%

Winning margin

Mzuni wins by 2+
17%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mzuni 1+ goals
67%
Mzuni 2+ goals
30%
Mzuni 3+ goals
10%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
57%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
21%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mzuni (draw refunded)
60%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mzuni at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mzuni attack 0.68 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.11

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Mzuni defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mzuni scores more
42%
level
31%
Chitipa United scores more
27%

Mzuni at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mzuni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mzuni 1–1 Chitipa United

Mzuni and Chitipa United drew 1-1 in Super League on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.