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MyPa vs VJS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

MyPa
MyPa
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
VJS
VJS
7/26/2025Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 15Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MyPa43%
×Draw21%
VJS35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MyPa
2.00
VJS
1.79

MyPa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 20 away

creates per match

MyPa
2.11
VJS
1.80

allows per match

MyPa
1.77
VJS
1.90

finishing

MyPa+0.00on par
VJS+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MyPa ↓

VJS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

MyPa or draw
65%
MyPa or VJS
79%
Draw or VJS
57%

Winning margin

MyPa wins by 2+
24%
VJS wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

MyPa 1+ goals
86%
MyPa 2+ goals
59%
MyPa 3+ goals
32%
VJS 1+ goals
83%
VJS 2+ goals
53%
VJS 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

MyPa (draw refunded)
55%
VJS (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MyPa at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

VJS away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MyPa attack 2.11 + VJS defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.00

VJS attack 1.80 + MyPa defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

MyPa scores more
43%
level
21%
VJS scores more
35%

MyPa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "MyPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: MyPa 3–3 VJS

MyPa and VJS drew 3-3 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion in Myllykoski.