Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MyPa vs Turku PS — Ykkönen 2026

MyPa
MyPa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Turku PS
Turku PS
4/27/2019YkkönenYkkönen · Round 1Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion (Myllykoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

MyPa22%
×Draw23%
Turku PS56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MyPa
1.09
Turku PS
1.88

Turku PS creates 72% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 53 away

creates per match

MyPa
1.25
Turku PS
1.38

allows per match

MyPa
2.38
Turku PS
0.94

finishing

MyPa+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MyPa ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

MyPa or draw
44%
MyPa or Turku PS
77%
Draw or Turku PS
78%

Winning margin

MyPa wins by 2+
8%
Turku PS wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

MyPa 1+ goals
66%
MyPa 2+ goals
30%
MyPa 3+ goals
10%
Turku PS 1+ goals
85%
Turku PS 2+ goals
56%
Turku PS 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

MyPa (draw refunded)
28%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MyPa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.38 · 24 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.94 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MyPa attack 1.25 + Turku PS defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Turku PS attack 1.38 + MyPa defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

MyPa scores more
22%
level
23%
Turku PS scores more
56%

Turku PS at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MyPa 0 – 1 Turku PS

Turku PS beat MyPa 1-0 in Ykkönen on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion (Myllykoski).