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MyPa vs JIPPO — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

MyPa
MyPa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
JIPPO
JIPPO
5/5/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 2Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion (Myllykoski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

MyPa34%
×Draw23%
JIPPO44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MyPa
1.53
JIPPO
1.77

JIPPO creates 16% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 44 away

creates per match

MyPa
2.11
JIPPO
1.77

allows per match

MyPa
1.77
JIPPO
0.95

finishing

MyPa+0.00on par
JIPPO+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MyPa ↓

JIPPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

MyPa or draw
56%
MyPa or JIPPO
77%
Draw or JIPPO
66%

Winning margin

MyPa wins by 2+
16%
JIPPO wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

MyPa 1+ goals
78%
MyPa 2+ goals
45%
MyPa 3+ goals
20%
JIPPO 1+ goals
83%
JIPPO 2+ goals
53%
JIPPO 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

MyPa (draw refunded)
44%
JIPPO (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MyPa at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

JIPPO away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MyPa attack 2.11 + JIPPO defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.53

JIPPO attack 1.77 + MyPa defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

MyPa scores more
34%
level
23%
JIPPO scores more
44%

JIPPO at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MyPa 1 – 1 JIPPO

MyPa and JIPPO drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 5, 2018.

The match was played at Kymenlaakson Sähkö Stadion (Myllykoski).