MyPa 11–0 Jäntevä Kotka: Result & Stats

MyPa

11 – 0

Jäntevä Kotka

3/25/2023

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundArto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

MyPa23%

×Draw16%

Jäntevä Kotka61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MyPaExpected goals in this matchJäntevä Kotka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

3.71

MyPa

2.35

Jäntevä Kotka

3.71

Jäntevä Kotka creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.13

creates per match

4.29

3.13

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

MyPa

2.13

Jäntevä Kotka

4.29

allows per match

MyPa

3.13

Jäntevä Kotka

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MyPa+0.00on par

Jäntevä Kotka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MyPa ↓

Jäntevä Kotka →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1–01%

1–12%

1–24%

1–35%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–46%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

84%16%4.5

69%31%

Double chance

MyPa or draw

39%

MyPa or Jäntevä Kotka

84%

Draw or Jäntevä Kotka

77%

Winning margin

MyPa wins by 2+

12%

Jäntevä Kotka wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

MyPa 1+ goals

90%

MyPa 2+ goals

68%

MyPa 3+ goals

41%

Jäntevä Kotka 1+ goals

97%

Jäntevä Kotka 2+ goals

87%

Jäntevä Kotka 3+ goals

69%

Draw no bet

MyPa (draw refunded)

28%

Jäntevä Kotka (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

MyPa at home — creates 2.13, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Jäntevä Kotka away — creates 4.29, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

MyPa attack 2.13 + Jäntevä Kotka defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.35

Jäntevä Kotka attack 4.29 + MyPa defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 3.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

MyPa scores more

23%

level

16%

Jäntevä Kotka scores more

61%

Jäntevä Kotka at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jäntevä Kotka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff