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MYDA vs Wakiso Giants — Premier League 2019

MYDA
MYDA
FT
1 – 2
Wakiso Giants
Wakiso Giants
5/21/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26King George IV Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MYDA29%
×Draw23%
Wakiso Giants48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MYDA
1.35
Wakiso Giants
1.81

Wakiso Giants creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 84 away

creates per match

MYDA
1.36
Wakiso Giants
0.76

allows per match

MYDA
2.86
Wakiso Giants
1.35

finishing

MYDA+0.00on par
Wakiso Giants+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MYDA ↓

Wakiso Giants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

MYDA or draw
52%
MYDA or Wakiso Giants
77%
Draw or Wakiso Giants
71%

Winning margin

MYDA wins by 2+
12%
Wakiso Giants wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

MYDA 1+ goals
74%
MYDA 2+ goals
39%
MYDA 3+ goals
15%
Wakiso Giants 1+ goals
84%
Wakiso Giants 2+ goals
54%
Wakiso Giants 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

MYDA (draw refunded)
37%
Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MYDA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

Wakiso Giants away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MYDA attack 1.36 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Wakiso Giants attack 0.76 + MYDA defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MYDA scores more
29%
level
23%
Wakiso Giants scores more
48%

Wakiso Giants at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wakiso Giants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: MYDA 1–2 Wakiso Giants

Wakiso Giants beat MYDA 2-1 in Premier League on May 21, 2021.

The match was played at King George IV Memorial Stadium in Tororo.