Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MYDA vs UPDF — Premier League 2019

MYDA
MYDA
FT
0 – 3
UPDF
UPDF
D. Kasirye 61'
B. Kalumba 34'
R. Eseru 26'
3/12/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14King George IV Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MYDA32%
×Draw22%
UPDF46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MYDA
1.54
UPDF
1.89

UPDF creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 87 away

creates per match

MYDA
1.36
UPDF
0.92

allows per match

MYDA
2.86
UPDF
1.71

finishing

MYDA+0.00on par
UPDF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MYDA ↓

UPDF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

MYDA or draw
54%
MYDA or UPDF
78%
Draw or UPDF
68%

Winning margin

MYDA wins by 2+
15%
UPDF wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

MYDA 1+ goals
79%
MYDA 2+ goals
45%
MYDA 3+ goals
20%
UPDF 1+ goals
85%
UPDF 2+ goals
56%
UPDF 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

MYDA (draw refunded)
41%
UPDF (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MYDA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

UPDF away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.71 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MYDA attack 1.36 + UPDF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

UPDF attack 0.92 + MYDA defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

MYDA scores more
32%
level
22%
UPDF scores more
46%

UPDF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
R. Eseru
30'
J. Vuni
34'
B. Kalumba
38'
F. Muledhu
49'
F. Okot← F. Okot
53'
E. Katende← E. Katende
61'
D. Kasirye
65'
S. Okello← S. Okello
67'
K. Brian← K. Brian
67'
A. Kitatta← A. Kitatta
81'
B. Lojum← B. Lojum
81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MYDA 0 – 3 UPDF

UPDF beat MYDA 3-0 in Premier League on March 12, 2021.

Goals: R. Eseru (26'), B. Kalumba (34'), D. Kasirye (61').

The match was played at King George IV Memorial Stadium in Tororo.