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MYDA vs Kyetume — Premier League 2019

MYDA
MYDA
FT
2 – 2
Kyetume
Kyetume
D. Basoga 90+1'
A. Etoju 84'
S. Saaka 49' (pen)
E. Kaye 13'
5/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22King George IV Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MYDA35%
×Draw22%
Kyetume43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MYDA
1.62
Kyetume
1.83

Kyetume creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

MYDA
1.36
Kyetume
0.81

allows per match

MYDA
2.86
Kyetume
1.88

finishing

MYDA+0.00on par
Kyetume+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MYDA ↓

Kyetume →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

MYDA or draw
57%
MYDA or Kyetume
78%
Draw or Kyetume
65%

Winning margin

MYDA wins by 2+
17%
Kyetume wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

MYDA 1+ goals
80%
MYDA 2+ goals
48%
MYDA 3+ goals
22%
Kyetume 1+ goals
84%
Kyetume 2+ goals
54%
Kyetume 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

MYDA (draw refunded)
44%
Kyetume (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MYDA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

Kyetume away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MYDA attack 1.36 + Kyetume defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kyetume attack 0.81 + MYDA defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

MYDA scores more
35%
level
22%
Kyetume scores more
43%

Kyetume at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kyetume will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
E. Kaye
15'
24'
42'
49'
S. SaakaPenalty
53'
R. Mpata← R. Mpata
54'
63'
D. Outta
67'
E. Mutebi← E. Mutebi
84'
A. Etoju
90+1'
D. Basoga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MYDA 2 – 2 Kyetume

MYDA and Kyetume drew 2-2 in Premier League on May 7, 2021.

Goals: E. Kaye (13'), S. Saaka (49' pen), A. Etoju (84'), D. Basoga (90+1').

The match was played at King George IV Memorial Stadium in Tororo.