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MYDA vs Bright Stars — Premier League 2019

MYDA
MYDA
FT
0 – 3
Bright Stars
Bright Stars
4/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18King George IV Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MYDA29%
×Draw23%
Bright Stars48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MYDA
1.39
Bright Stars
1.86

Bright Stars creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 83 away

creates per match

MYDA
1.36
Bright Stars
0.86

allows per match

MYDA
2.86
Bright Stars
1.41

finishing

MYDA+0.00on par
Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MYDA ↓

Bright Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

MYDA or draw
52%
MYDA or Bright Stars
77%
Draw or Bright Stars
71%

Winning margin

MYDA wins by 2+
13%
Bright Stars wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

MYDA 1+ goals
75%
MYDA 2+ goals
40%
MYDA 3+ goals
16%
Bright Stars 1+ goals
84%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
55%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

MYDA (draw refunded)
37%
Bright Stars (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MYDA at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MYDA attack 1.36 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + MYDA defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MYDA scores more
29%
level
23%
Bright Stars scores more
48%

Bright Stars at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bright Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MYDA vs Bright Stars

Bright Stars beat MYDA 3-0 in Premier League on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at King George IV Memorial Stadium in Tororo.