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Myanmar W vs Hong Kong W — Friendlies Women 2026

Myanmar W
Myanmar W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hong Kong W
Hong Kong W
Tun Win Theingi 90+1'
T. Shwe Yee 78'
Thaw Thaw Saw 52'
Tun Khin Marlar 39'
M. H. Tsang L. 10'
10/23/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Thuwunna Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Myanmar W52%
×Draw22%
Hong Kong W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Myanmar W
1.90
Hong Kong W
1.27

Myanmar W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Myanmar W
1.90
Hong Kong W
1.55

allows per match

Myanmar W
1.00
Hong Kong W
1.91

finishing

Myanmar W+0.00on par
Hong Kong W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Myanmar W ↓

Hong Kong W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Myanmar W or draw
74%
Myanmar W or Hong Kong W
78%
Draw or Hong Kong W
48%

Winning margin

Myanmar W wins by 2+
30%
Hong Kong W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Myanmar W 1+ goals
85%
Myanmar W 2+ goals
56%
Myanmar W 3+ goals
29%
Hong Kong W 1+ goals
72%
Hong Kong W 2+ goals
36%
Hong Kong W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Myanmar W (draw refunded)
67%
Hong Kong W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Myanmar W at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Hong Kong W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Myanmar W attack 1.90 + Hong Kong W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

Hong Kong W attack 1.55 + Myanmar W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Myanmar W scores more
52%
level
22%
Hong Kong W scores more
26%

Myanmar W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Myanmar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. H. Tsang L.
39'
Tun Khin Marlar
52'
Thaw Thaw Saw
78'
T. Shwe Yee
90+1'
Tun Win Theingi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Myanmar W 4 – 1 Hong Kong W

Myanmar W beat Hong Kong W 4-1 in Friendlies Women on October 23, 2024.

Goals: M. H. Tsang L. (10'), Tun Khin Marlar (39'), Thaw Thaw Saw (52'), T. Shwe Yee (78'), Tun Win Theingi (90+1').

The match was played at Thuwunna Stadium in Yangon.