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Myanmar vs Turkmenistan — Friendlies 2026

Myanmar
Myanmar
CANC
00:00
Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan
11/10/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Mandalar Thiri Stadium (Mandalay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Myanmar47%
×Draw29%
Turkmenistan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Myanmar
1.25
Turkmenistan
0.80

Myanmar creates 56% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Myanmar
1.50
Turkmenistan
0.60

allows per match

Myanmar
1.00
Turkmenistan
1.00

finishing

Myanmar+0.00on par
Turkmenistan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Myanmar ↓

Turkmenistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Myanmar or draw
76%
Myanmar or Turkmenistan
71%
Draw or Turkmenistan
53%

Winning margin

Myanmar wins by 2+
21%
Turkmenistan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Myanmar 1+ goals
71%
Myanmar 2+ goals
36%
Myanmar 3+ goals
13%
Turkmenistan 1+ goals
55%
Turkmenistan 2+ goals
19%
Turkmenistan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Myanmar (draw refunded)
66%
Turkmenistan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Myanmar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Turkmenistan away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Myanmar attack 1.50 + Turkmenistan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Turkmenistan attack 0.60 + Myanmar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Myanmar scores more
47%
level
29%
Turkmenistan scores more
24%

Myanmar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Myanmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Myanmar face Turkmenistan (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Myanmar hosting Turkmenistan. Match starts November 10, 2019. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Myanmar host Turkmenistan at Mandalar Thiri Stadium (Mandalay).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.