Myanmar 2–3 Lebanon: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Myanmar

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Lebanon

M. M. Lwin 57'

T. Zaw 42'

S. J. Merheg 84', 74'

M. Fakhro 36'

11/19/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Thuwunna Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Myanmar47%

×Draw31%

Lebanon23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MyanmarExpected goals in this matchLebanon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.72

Myanmar

1.18

Lebanon

0.72

Myanmar creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 22 away

1.50

creates per match

0.45

1.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Myanmar

1.50

Lebanon

0.45

allows per match

Myanmar

1.00

Lebanon

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Myanmar+0.00on par

Lebanon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Myanmar ↓

Lebanon →

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Myanmar or draw

77%

Myanmar or Lebanon

69%

Draw or Lebanon

53%

Winning margin

Myanmar wins by 2+

21%

Lebanon wins by 2+

Team goals

Myanmar 1+ goals

69%

Myanmar 2+ goals

33%

Myanmar 3+ goals

12%

Lebanon 1+ goals

51%

Lebanon 2+ goals

16%

Lebanon 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Myanmar (draw refunded)

68%

Lebanon (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Myanmar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Lebanon away — creates 0.45, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Myanmar attack 1.50 + Lebanon defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Lebanon attack 0.45 + Myanmar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Myanmar scores more

47%

level

31%

Lebanon scores more

23%

Myanmar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Myanmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

T. Zaw

31'

H. Al Zein← H. Al Zein

31'

M. K. Khant← Thein Zaw Win

36'

M. Fakhro

42'

T. Zaw

46'

G. Bitar← H. Srour

46'

D. Lajud Martinez← K. Darwiche

48'

57'

61'

61'

66'

66'

74'

O. Bugiel← S. J. Merheg

74'

S. J. Merheg

82'

H. Chakroun← M. Haidar

84'

S. J. Merheg

85'

Aung Than Toe← Aung Than Toe

85'

Naing Oakkar← A. Thiha

87'

K. Darwiche

90+2'

Y. L. Htet← Y. L. Htet

90+2'

Aung Wai Lin← L. D. Maw Yar

90+3'

Aung Than Toe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff