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Myanmar vs Laos — AFF Championship 2018

Myanmar
Myanmar
Preview
12:00
Laos
Laos
8/4/2026AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 4
63%
Myanmar
model favours
63%19%18%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Myanmar63%
×Draw19%
Laos18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Myanmar
2.41
Laos
1.23

Myanmar creates 96% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Myanmar
1.56
Laos
1.13

allows per match

Myanmar
1.33
Laos
3.25

finishing

Myanmar+0.00on par
Laos+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Myanmar ↓

Laos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Myanmar or draw
82%
Myanmar or Laos
81%
Draw or Laos
37%

Winning margin

Myanmar wins by 2+
41%
Laos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Myanmar 1+ goals
91%
Myanmar 2+ goals
69%
Myanmar 3+ goals
43%
Laos 1+ goals
71%
Laos 2+ goals
35%
Laos 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Myanmar (draw refunded)
78%
Laos (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Myanmar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Laos away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Myanmar attack 1.56 + Laos defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.41

Laos attack 1.13 + Myanmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Myanmar scores more
63%
level
19%
Laos scores more
18%

Myanmar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Myanmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 3 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Myanmar
LWWWL
Laos
WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Myanmar vs Laos — Match Preview

Myanmar face Laos on August 4, 2026 in this AFF Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.